Autotek perspectiveThe Future of the Automotive Aftermarket
Eighteen slides on data readiness, AI adoption and the connected vehicle. Every figure is sourced and the sources are named on the slide. Free, and we do not ask for your email.
The argument in one line
Demand is not the constraint. Data is.
Vehicles on the road are older, more numerous and more electronically complex than at any point in the industry's history. The parts exist. The margin exists. What is missing is the ability to find, forecast, price and fit the right part the first time, at the speed a connected vehicle now expects.
The figures the report is built on
These are the ones worth knowing even if you never open the PDF. Each is attributed to its source, as published.
12.8 yearsAverage age of a US light vehicle, up two months year on year for the second consecutive year. Passenger cars average 14.5 years.S&P Global Mobility, May 2025
289 millionUS vehicles in operation, 2024. Passenger cars on EU roads, 256 million, averaging 12.7 years.S&P Global Mobility; ACEA
$664 billionProjected US aftermarket by 2028, light, medium and heavy duty. The US light-duty market grew 5.7% in 2024 to $413.7 billion.Auto Care Association Factbook 2026; MEMA
58%Share of annual technician demand that goes unmet. 241,842 roles open each year against 101,743 graduates.TechForce Foundation, 9th edition, 2026
60%AI projects forecast to be abandoned for want of AI-ready data through 2026. In the same survey, 63% of organisations lacked the right data practices for AI, or did not know whether they had them.Gartner, 2025
95%Share of new vehicles sold globally expected to be connected by 2030, against roughly half today.McKinsey
75%Share of vehicles expected to carry ADAS features by 2030, from around 11% in 2020. Every sensor is a calibration event.CLEPA / Roland Berger; CCC
−40%Service revenue per vehicle for an EV against an ICE car, with an 8% cut in annual US service revenue modelled through 2030.AlixPartners, 2023
Why 2026 is the year that matters
The compliance runway is already live, and the dates are fixed rather than forecast.
- The EU Data Act applied from 12 September 2025.
- Connected products must ship data access capability from 12 September 2026.
- VIN data and the electronic maintenance log must be available by API from 23 June 2027.
- The repair information scope now explicitly covers ADAS calibration, battery diagnostics and software version data.
In the United States, the REPAIR Act remains in committee, so the independent channel is still waiting on statute.
Data foundations take 18 to 36 months to lay. On that arithmetic, 2030 readiness is a decision made in 2026.
The fork in 2030
McKinsey's base case puts the global aftermarket near €1.2 trillion by 2030. Its accelerated-technology scenario compresses the same pool to €588 billion.
That is not a forecasting range. It is two different industries, and which one you land in is a function of readiness rather than of luck.
Six places AI already pays for itself in auto parts
Not a technology wish list. These are the clusters where operators can point to a measured result.
- Demand and inventory. Forecasting at store and SKU level. Fewer dead parts, higher fill rate.
- Catalogue and fitment. Language models parsing trim, option and supersession data at scale.
- Visual part identification. Photo to part number, and damage to estimate, in seconds.
- Counter and contact centre. Lookup, quoting and booking without adding headcount.
- Technician assist. Generative retrieval over service information, bulletins and procedures.
- Claims and warranty. Automated estimating and validation across the collision channel.
A note on one figure in the PDF
Slide 7 of the report states that 86% of automotive e-commerce returns are attributable to inaccurate fitment data, citing industry analyses.
We have since tried to trace that figure to a primary study and could not. Every source we followed leads back to a company selling fitment software, with no published methodology behind it. We no longer use it, and we have removed it from the rest of this site.
The underlying mechanism is real and well documented: parts are returned because the vehicle did not match, not because the box was damaged. The specific percentage is not something we can stand behind, and we would rather say so here than quietly leave it in a PDF people cite.
Everything else in the report is attributed on the slide it appears on. If you find another figure you cannot trace, tell us and we will either source it or withdraw it.
If the report raised a question about your own data
The gap between reading this and doing something about it is usually a catalogue nobody has measured. We will measure it: send a catalogue extract and we will return the audit scored, with your gaps ranked by vehicles in operation.
Send an extractOr run the checks yourself